West Pacific/2015/08W/Archive/2
Public Advisory TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 2 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 12:00 PM JST SUN JUN 21 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 12:00 PM JST...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------ LOCATION...15.9N 111.5E ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF DA NANG, VIETNAM MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 KT...45 MPH...75 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INHG PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 12:00 pm JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 15.9N 111.5E, or about 220 miles (355 km) east of Da Nang, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 994 mb (hPa; 29.36 inHg), and the system was stationary. The persistent effects of strong upper-level winds are expected to limit significant intensification of the tropical cyclone as it moves northward toward Hainan over the next few days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------------------------ Next complete advisory at 6:00 pm JST. $$ Forecaster TAWX14 Discussion TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 12:00 PM JST SUN JUN 21 2015 Visible satellite animation and a series of microwave passes indicate that the overall structure of Kujira has changed little since the last advisory. Between 0z and 2z, the low-level center was tucked deeper within the irregular central dense overcast; however, as of the time of this writing, the circulation was partially exposed once again. Recent satellite estimates were T2.5/35kt from SAB and T2.9/43kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Given a slightly improved appearance to the convective canopy in association with the cyclone, the initial intensity has been set at 40kt. An ASCAT pass will soon be available to assess the true strength of Kujira. The intensity forecast for the cyclone remains straightforward. Although Kujira is located over some of the warmest ocean temperatures on the globe, running at nearly 32C, the system continues to be plagued by strong northeasterly wind shear from an expansive anticyclone to the northwest. This shear is only expected to lessen slightly as time progresses. As a result, the updated intensity forecast is only slightly higher than the previous one, showing Kujira reaching an estimated peak of 50kt before landfall on Hainan island. Thereafter, the effects of land should weaken the cyclone below tropical storm strength as it makes a second landfall on the China mainland. Dissipation is forecast by the end of the period. Kujira's motion has been a bit difficult to assess this afternoon due to the erratic nature of the low-level circulation. The best estimate is that the cyclone has slowed to a halt east of Vietnam. Over the coming days, a series of shortwave troughs should dig into the West Pacific, eroding the western edge of a subtropical ridge positioned northeast of the Philippines. As a result, Kujira is expected to turn northward and maintain that general heading through its second landfall. A mid-level ridge near the Philippines may direct the weakening circulation of the cyclone on a more west-northwest heading once inland. Compared to the previous forecast package, reliable computer guidance indicates that Kujira will move quicker, and so the times of both landfalls, as well as the time of dissipation, have been brought forward. INIT 21/0300Z 15.9N 111.5E 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 16.6N 111.7E 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 17.5N 111.5E 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 18.7N 111.3E 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 19.8N 110.9E 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 22.5N 109.4E 15 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster TAWX14